Water AlliesTier 3
at Ascent Kuala Lumpur
decks
5
(1.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
43
17-21-5
overall winrate
45.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.1%
avg ELO -3.1 per match
expected value
43.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1332
· median 1315
· range 1265–1441
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1184
Q3 1396
1730
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 9 | 1-7-1 | 16.7% | 26.9% | 24.0% | -12.0 |
| Water Genbu | 9.8% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 38.4% | -5.8 |
| Wind Allies | 9.4% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 62.1% | +9.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.2% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.5% | -4.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.6% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 64.8% | +7.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.1% | -7.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.5% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 30.7% | -12.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.5 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.6% | +24.9 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Zander | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diao Chan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Guo Jia | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
